The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Los Angeles ChargersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 1.7market DAL by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.5 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 55% to win, with the market at DAL by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Dak Prescott starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours DAL. DAL passing ranks #3, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into DAL's #8. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LAC has 7 more days since its last game (LAC 15d, DAL 8d).
Form: DAL has the better last five games by 11.8 points a game (LAC -13.8, DAL -2.0).
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 1.7 against a market DAL by 1.5: 3.2 points of daylight in LAC's favour. The model's total is 50.5 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 1.7 · market DAL by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DAL, but the model still picks LAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #3, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into DAL's #8.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into DAL's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL third-down conversion ranks #1, LAC defends it at #14; the other way LAC #17 into DAL's #15.
Big plays
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #11, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into DAL's #19.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
DAL sack rate ranks #10, LAC defends it at #11; the other way LAC #12 into DAL's #8.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #6, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #19 into DAL's #13.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Clear advantage
LAC −13.8 per game over the last five, DAL −2.0.
Market
DAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DAL by 1.5; the model says LAC by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 1.5 · model LAC by 1.7
Mkt DAL 1.5
Model LAC 1.7
← DAL by 28tieLAC by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 50.5
Mkt 49.5
Model 50.5
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 50.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
