The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Jacksonville JaguarsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 4.6market JAX by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.8 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 63% to win, with the market at JAX by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Trevor Lawrence starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
JAX has the advantage in passing: JAX passing ranks #19, IND defends it at #20; the other way IND #16 into JAX's #11.
Counterpoint: rushing favours IND. IND rushing ranks #18, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into IND's #16. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 4.6 against a market JAX by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 46.8 against a line of 44: 2.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 4.6 · market JAX by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor IND, but the model still picks JAX. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX passing ranks #19, IND defends it at #20; the other way IND #16 into JAX's #11.
Rushing game
IND
Clear advantage
IND rushing ranks #18, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into IND's #16.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
JAX third-down conversion ranks #16, IND defends it at #8; the other way IND #25 into JAX's #12.
Big plays
IND
Slight advantage
IND explosive rush rate ranks #7, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #29 into IND's #7.
Pass protection & rush
IND
Clear advantage
IND sack rate ranks #15, JAX defends it at #27; the other way JAX #9 into IND's #3.
Ball security
IND
Slight advantage
IND turnovers / game ranks #14, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #27 into IND's #15.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
JAX −4.0 per game over the last five, IND −4.6.
Market
JAX
Clear advantage
Consensus has JAX by 4; the model says JAX by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 4 · model JAX by 4.6
Mkt JAX 4
Model JAX 4.6
← IND by 28tieJAX by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 4 and 4.6, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 4. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 46.8
Mkt 44
Model 46.8
20 pts4672 pts
4.8% of NFL games finish between 44 and 46.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
