The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%New Orleans SaintsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NO by 1.2market NO by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.8 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New Orleans Saints at 54% to win, with the market at NO by 2.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Derek Carr starting for New Orleans Saints, and the model prices that in.
NO has the advantage in rushing: NO rushing ranks #15, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into NO's #3.
NO has the advantage in passing: NO passing ranks #14, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #12 into NO's #5.
Counterpoint: big plays favours HOU. HOU explosive rush rate ranks #17, NO defends it at #25; the other way NO #26 into HOU's #12. The pick still lands on NO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NO has the better last five games by 10.6 points a game (HOU +4.0, NO +14.6).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NO by 1.2 against a market NO by 2: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 37.8 against a line of 42.5: 4.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NO by 1.2 · market NO by 2
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NO
Slight advantage
NO passing ranks #14, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #12 into NO's #5.
Rushing game
NO
Clear advantage
NO rushing ranks #15, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into NO's #3.
Third down & red zone
NO
Slight advantage
NO third-down conversion ranks #15, HOU defends it at #6; the other way HOU #20 into NO's #4.
Big plays
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU explosive rush rate ranks #17, NO defends it at #25; the other way NO #26 into HOU's #12.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #17, NO defends it at #29; the other way NO #7 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
NO
Clear advantage
NO turnovers / game ranks #4, HOU defends it at #20; the other way HOU #1 into NO's #1.
Form (last 5)
NO
Clear advantage
HOU +4.0 per game over the last five, NO +14.6.
Market
NO
Slight advantage
Consensus has NO by 2; the model says NO by 1.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NO by 2 · model NO by 1.2
Mkt NO 2
Model NO 1.2
← NO by 28tieHOU by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 2 and 1.2, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 2. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 37.8
Mkt 42.5
Model 37.8
20 pts4672 pts
12.8% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 37.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
