The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Philadelphia EaglesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PHI by 4.0market PHI by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles at 62% to win, with the market at PHI by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jalen Hurts starting for Philadelphia Eagles, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours LAR. LAR turnovers / game ranks #7, PHI defends it at #26; the other way PHI #25 into LAR's #30. The pick still lands on PHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAR has the better last five games by 11.2 points a game (LAR +3.4, PHI -7.8).
Home field is with LAR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PHI by 4.0 against a market PHI by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.3 against a line of 50.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PHI by 4.0 · market PHI by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAR, but the model still picks PHI. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR passing ranks #8, PHI defends it at #28; the other way PHI #11 into LAR's #21.
Rushing game
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR rushing ranks #7, PHI defends it at #30; the other way PHI #8 into LAR's #20.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #8, PHI defends it at #29; the other way PHI #9 into LAR's #19.
Big plays
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #20, PHI defends it at #27; the other way PHI #18 into LAR's #15.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #6, PHI defends it at #24; the other way PHI #13 into LAR's #23.
Ball security
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #7, PHI defends it at #26; the other way PHI #25 into LAR's #30.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR +3.4 per game over the last five, PHI −7.8.
Market
PHI
Clear advantage
Consensus has PHI by 3.5; the model says PHI by 4.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PHI by 3.5 · model PHI by 4.0
Mkt PHI 3.5
Model PHI 4.0
← PHI by 28tieLAR by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 50.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 50.3
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
