The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Atlanta FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ATL by 1.5market ATL by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.3 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Atlanta Falcons at 54% to win, with the market at ATL by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Desmond Ridder starting for Atlanta Falcons, and the model prices that in.
ATL has the advantage in rushing: ATL rushing ranks #27, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into ATL's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours HOU. HOU turnovers / game ranks #1, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into HOU's #20. The pick still lands on ATL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 11.6 points a game (ATL -7.6, HOU +4.0).
Home field is with ATL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ATL by 1.5 against a market ATL by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 38.3 against a line of 42: 3.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ATL by 1.5 · market ATL by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks ATL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #12, ATL defends it at #19; the other way ATL #22 into HOU's #13.
Rushing game
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL rushing ranks #27, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into ATL's #1.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, HOU defends it at #6; the other way HOU #20 into ATL's #3.
Big plays
=
Even
HOU explosive pass rate ranks #2, ATL defends it at #18; the other way ATL #17 into HOU's #21.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #17, ATL defends it at #18; the other way ATL #22 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #1, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into HOU's #20.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
ATL −7.6 per game over the last five, HOU +4.0.
Market
ATL
Slight advantage
Consensus has ATL by 2.5; the model says ATL by 1.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ATL by 2.5 · model ATL by 1.5
Mkt ATL 2.5
Model ATL 1.5
← HOU by 28tieATL by 28 →
2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 38.3
Mkt 42
Model 38.3
20 pts4672 pts
9.3% of NFL games finish between 42 and 38.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
