The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 9.2market BUF by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.0 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 75% to win, with the market at BUF by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Trevor Lawrence starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in rushing: BUF rushing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into BUF's #23.
BUF has the advantage in passing: BUF passing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #11; the other way JAX #19 into BUF's #6.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 9.2 points a game (BUF +5.2, JAX -4.0).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 9.2 against a market BUF by 5.5: 3.7 points of daylight in BUF's favour. The model's total is 47.0 against a line of 48.5: 1.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 9.2 · market BUF by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #11; the other way JAX #19 into BUF's #6.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into BUF's #23.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #21 into BUF's #20.
Big plays
=
Even
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #20, BUF defends it at #9; the other way BUF #21 into JAX's #6.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, JAX defends it at #27; the other way JAX #9 into BUF's #5.
Ball security
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #22, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #27 into BUF's #2.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +5.2 per game over the last five, JAX −4.0.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 5.5; the model says BUF by 9.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 5.5 · model BUF by 9.2
Mkt BUF 5.5
Model BUF 9.2
← JAX by 28tieBUF by 28 →
11.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 47.0
Mkt 48.5
Model 47.0
20 pts4672 pts
6.1% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 47.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
