The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Washington CommandersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 9.5market WSH by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.1 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 76% to win, with the market at WSH by 6.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into CHI's #5. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 24.0 points a game (WSH -17.0, CHI +7.0).
Home field is with WSH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 9.5 against a market WSH by 6: 3.5 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 49.1 against a line of 45.5: 3.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 9.5 · market WSH by 6
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks WSH. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI passing ranks #23, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into CHI's #16.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, WSH defends it at #21; the other way WSH #19 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, CHI defends it at #31; the other way CHI #15 into WSH's #18.
Big plays
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #25 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WSH sack rate ranks #28, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into WSH's #25.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
WSH −17.0 per game over the last five, CHI +7.0.
Market
WSH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSH by 6; the model says WSH by 9.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 6 · model WSH by 9.5
Mkt WSH 6
Model WSH 9.5
← CHI by 28tieWSH by 28 →
7.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 49.1
Mkt 45.5
Model 49.1
20 pts4672 pts
10.7% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 49.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
