The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%New York GiantsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYG by 0.0market SEA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.2 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Giants at 50% to win, with the market at SEA by 2.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours SEA. SEA sack rate ranks #11, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #32 into SEA's #12. The pick still lands on NYG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NYG has 3 more days since its last game (NYG 11d, SEA 8d).
Home field is with NYG, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYG by 0.0 against a market SEA by 2.5: 2.5 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 51.2 against a line of 46.5: 4.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYG by 0.0 · market SEA by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SEA, but the model still picks NYG. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
NYG passing ranks #28, SEA defends it at #27; the other way SEA #13 into NYG's #12.
Rushing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA rushing ranks #14, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #31 into SEA's #31.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NYG third-down conversion ranks #30, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #23 into NYG's #10.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #9, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #15 into SEA's #18.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #32 into SEA's #12.
Ball security
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #12, SEA defends it at #21; the other way SEA #2 into NYG's #3.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NYG −1.6 per game over the last five, SEA −2.4.
Market
SEA
Slight advantage
Consensus has SEA by 2.5; the model says NYG by 0.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 2.5 · model NYG by 0.0
Mkt SEA 2.5
Model NYG 0.0
← SEA by 28tieNYG by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 51.2
Mkt 46.5
Model 51.2
20 pts4672 pts
14.8% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 51.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
