The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Kansas City ChiefsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 9.8market KC by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.5 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 77% to win, with the market at KC by 9.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Zach Wilson starting for New York Jets, and the model prices that in.
KC has the advantage in passing: KC passing ranks #7, NYJ defends it at #3; the other way NYJ #32 into KC's #4.
KC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: KC third-down conversion ranks #6, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into KC's #5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NYJ. NYJ turnovers / game ranks #28, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #23 into NYJ's #6. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: KC has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (NYJ -1.4, KC +6.6).
Home field is with NYJ, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 9.8 against a market KC by 9.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 34.5 against a line of 41.5: 7.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 9.8 · market KC by 9.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC passing ranks #7, NYJ defends it at #3; the other way NYJ #32 into KC's #4.
Rushing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ rushing ranks #29, KC defends it at #25; the other way KC #23 into NYJ's #8.
Third down & red zone
KC
Clear advantage
KC third-down conversion ranks #6, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into KC's #5.
Big plays
KC
Clear advantage
KC explosive pass rate ranks #14, NYJ defends it at #4; the other way NYJ #30 into KC's #1.
Pass protection & rush
KC
Clear advantage
KC sack rate ranks #2, NYJ defends it at #2; the other way NYJ #29 into KC's #4.
Ball security
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ turnovers / game ranks #28, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #23 into NYJ's #6.
Form (last 5)
KC
Clear advantage
NYJ −1.4 per game over the last five, KC +6.6.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 9.5; the model says KC by 9.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 9.5 · model KC by 9.8
Mkt KC 9.5
Model KC 9.8
← KC by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 34.5
Mkt 41.5
Model 34.5
20 pts4672 pts
18.9% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 34.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
