The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Indianapolis ColtsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IND by 0.7market LAR by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.8 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indianapolis Colts at 52% to win, with the market at LAR by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Anthony Richardson starting for Indianapolis Colts, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours LAR. LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #8, IND defends it at #17; the other way IND #24 into LAR's #19. The pick still lands on IND because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAR has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (IND -4.6, LAR +3.4).
Home field is with IND, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it IND by 0.7 against a market LAR by 1: 1.7 points of daylight in IND's favour. The model's total is 45.8 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IND by 0.7 · market LAR by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAR, but the model still picks IND. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR passing ranks #8, IND defends it at #20; the other way IND #16 into LAR's #21.
Rushing game
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR rushing ranks #7, IND defends it at #16; the other way IND #18 into LAR's #20.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #8, IND defends it at #17; the other way IND #24 into LAR's #19.
Big plays
=
Even
IND explosive rush rate ranks #7, LAR defends it at #15; the other way LAR #20 into IND's #7.
Pass protection & rush
IND
Slight advantage
IND sack rate ranks #15, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #6 into IND's #3.
Ball security
IND
Slight advantage
IND turnovers / game ranks #14, LAR defends it at #30; the other way LAR #7 into IND's #15.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Clear advantage
IND −4.6 per game over the last five, LAR +3.4.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has LAR by 1; the model says IND by 0.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 1 · model IND by 0.7
Mkt LAR 1
Model IND 0.7
← LAR by 28tieIND by 28 →
0.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 45.8
Mkt 44.5
Model 45.8
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 45.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
