The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Denver BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEN by 0.4market DEN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.1 pointsmarket 47
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Denver Broncos at 51% to win, with the market at DEN by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Fields starting for Chicago Bears, and the model prices that in.
DEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DEN third-down conversion ranks #22, CHI defends it at #29; the other way CHI #10 into DEN's #2.
Counterpoint: rushing favours CHI. CHI rushing ranks #9, DEN defends it at #19; the other way DEN #17 into CHI's #4. The pick still lands on DEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 10.4 points a game (CHI +7.0, DEN -3.4).
Home field is with CHI, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DEN by 0.4 against a market DEN by 3: 2.6 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 55.1 against a line of 47: 8.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEN by 0.4 · market DEN by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks DEN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI passing ranks #23, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #20 into CHI's #16.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, DEN defends it at #19; the other way DEN #17 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN third-down conversion ranks #22, CHI defends it at #29; the other way CHI #10 into DEN's #2.
Big plays
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #19 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN sack rate ranks #27, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into DEN's #19.
Ball security
=
Even
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, DEN defends it at #14; the other way DEN #17 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI +7.0 per game over the last five, DEN −3.4.
Market
DEN
Slight advantage
Consensus has DEN by 3; the model says DEN by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DEN by 3 · model DEN by 0.4
Mkt DEN 3
Model DEN 0.4
← DEN by 28tieCHI by 28 →
4.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 55.1
Mkt 47
Model 55.1
20 pts4672 pts
19.4% of NFL games finish between 47 and 55.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
