The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Atlanta FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ATL by 0.6market JAX by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.6 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Atlanta Falcons at 52% to win, with the market at JAX by 3.5.
ATL has the advantage in rushing: ATL rushing ranks #27, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into ATL's #1.
ATL has the advantage in big plays: ATL explosive rush rate ranks #12, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #29 into ATL's #8.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours JAX. JAX turnovers / game ranks #27, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into JAX's #10. The pick still lands on ATL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it ATL by 0.6 against a market JAX by 3.5: 4.1 points of daylight in ATL's favour. The model's total is 40.6 against a line of 42.5: 1.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ATL by 0.6 · market JAX by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX passing ranks #19, ATL defends it at #19; the other way ATL #22 into JAX's #11.
Rushing game
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL rushing ranks #27, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into ATL's #1.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, JAX defends it at #12; the other way JAX #16 into ATL's #3.
Big plays
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL explosive rush rate ranks #12, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #29 into ATL's #8.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
JAX sack rate ranks #9, ATL defends it at #18; the other way ATL #22 into JAX's #27.
Ball security
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #27, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into JAX's #10.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX −4.0 per game over the last five, ATL −7.6.
Market
JAX
Clear advantage
Consensus has JAX by 3.5; the model says ATL by 0.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 3.5 · model ATL by 0.6
Mkt JAX 3.5
Model ATL 0.6
← ATL by 28tieJAX by 28 →
12.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 40.6
Mkt 42.5
Model 40.6
20 pts4672 pts
5.1% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 40.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
