The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Green Bay PackersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 3.9market DET by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.3 pointsmarket 45
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 61% to win, with the market at DET by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jordan Love starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
GB has the advantage in passing: GB passing ranks #4, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #6 into GB's #23.
Counterpoint: rushing favours DET. DET rushing ranks #4, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #11 into DET's #6. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with GB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 3.9 against a market DET by 2.5: 6.4 points of daylight in GB's favour. The model's total is 47.3 against a line of 45: 2.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 3.9 · market DET by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GB
Slight advantage
GB passing ranks #4, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #6 into GB's #23.
Rushing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET rushing ranks #4, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #11 into DET's #6.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DET third-down conversion ranks #7, GB defends it at #28; the other way GB #3 into DET's #11.
Big plays
DET
Slight advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #4, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #16 into DET's #4.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Slight advantage
GB sack rate ranks #3, DET defends it at #22; the other way DET #4 into GB's #16.
Ball security
=
Even
GB turnovers / game ranks #8, DET defends it at #17; the other way DET #15 into GB's #24.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, DET +3.0.
Market
DET
Slight advantage
Consensus has DET by 2.5; the model says GB by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 2.5 · model GB by 3.9
Mkt DET 2.5
Model GB 3.9
← DET by 28tieGB by 28 →
17.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45 · model 47.3
Mkt 45
Model 47.3
20 pts4672 pts
5.7% of NFL games finish between 45 and 47.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
