The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Jacksonville JaguarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 9.2market JAX by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.8 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 75% to win, with the market at JAX by 7.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Trevor Lawrence starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours HOU. HOU rushing ranks #28, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into HOU's #7. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (JAX -4.0, HOU +4.0).
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 9.2 against a market JAX by 7.5: 1.7 points of daylight in JAX's favour. The model's total is 42.8 against a line of 43.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 9.2 · market JAX by 7.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks JAX. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
HOU passing ranks #12, JAX defends it at #11; the other way JAX #19 into HOU's #13.
Rushing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU rushing ranks #28, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into HOU's #7.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU red-zone touchdown rate ranks #16, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #21 into HOU's #15.
Big plays
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU explosive rush rate ranks #17, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #29 into HOU's #12.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #17, JAX defends it at #27; the other way JAX #9 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #1, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #27 into HOU's #20.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
JAX −4.0 per game over the last five, HOU +4.0.
Market
JAX
Clear advantage
Consensus has JAX by 7.5; the model says JAX by 9.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 7.5 · model JAX by 9.2
Mkt JAX 7.5
Model JAX 9.2
← HOU by 28tieJAX by 28 →
3.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 42.8
Mkt 43.5
Model 42.8
20 pts4672 pts
3.5% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 42.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
