The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Tennessee TitansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 1.2market LAC by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.5 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 54% to win, with the market at LAC by 2.5.
TEN has the advantage in rushing: TEN rushing ranks #13, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into TEN's #13.
TEN has the advantage in big plays: TEN explosive pass rate ranks #8, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into TEN's #14.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LAC. LAC sack rate ranks #12, TEN defends it at #14; the other way TEN #31 into LAC's #11. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: TEN has the better last five games by 9.8 points a game (TEN -4.0, LAC -13.8).
Home field is with TEN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 1.2 against a market LAC by 2.5: 3.7 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 43.5 against a line of 45.5: 2.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 1.2 · market LAC by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC passing ranks #17, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #21 into LAC's #24.
Rushing game
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN rushing ranks #13, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into TEN's #13.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #17, TEN defends it at #16; the other way TEN #28 into LAC's #14.
Big plays
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN explosive pass rate ranks #8, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into TEN's #14.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #12, TEN defends it at #14; the other way TEN #31 into LAC's #11.
Ball security
=
Even
TEN turnovers / game ranks #10, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #19 into TEN's #31.
Form (last 5)
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN −4.0 per game over the last five, LAC −13.8.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 2.5; the model says TEN by 1.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 2.5 · model TEN by 1.2
Mkt LAC 2.5
Model TEN 1.2
← LAC by 28tieTEN by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 43.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 43.5
20 pts4672 pts
6.3% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 43.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
