The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Washington CommandersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 5.6market WSH by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.6 pointsmarket 38
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 66% to win, with the market at WSH by 7.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours ARI. ARI turnovers / game ranks #11, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into ARI's #29. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ARI has the better last five games by 15.0 points a game (WSH -17.0, ARI -2.0).
Home field is with WSH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 5.6 against a market WSH by 7: 1.4 points of daylight in ARI's favour. The model's total is 41.6 against a line of 38: 3.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 5.6 · market WSH by 7
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARI, but the model still picks WSH. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
WSH passing ranks #26, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #27 into WSH's #32.
Rushing game
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI rushing ranks #6, WSH defends it at #21; the other way WSH #19 into ARI's #28.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, ARI defends it at #23; the other way ARI #7 into WSH's #18.
Big plays
=
Even
WSH explosive rush rate ranks #10, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #2 into WSH's #13.
Pass protection & rush
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI sack rate ranks #21, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #28 into ARI's #26.
Ball security
ARI
Clear advantage
ARI turnovers / game ranks #11, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into ARI's #29.
Form (last 5)
ARI
Clear advantage
WSH −17.0 per game over the last five, ARI −2.0.
Market
WSH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSH by 7; the model says WSH by 5.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 7 · model WSH by 5.6
Mkt WSH 7
Model WSH 5.6
← ARI by 28tieWSH by 28 →
3.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38 · model 41.6
Mkt 38
Model 41.6
20 pts4672 pts
9.3% of NFL games finish between 38 and 41.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
