The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Cincinnati BengalsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 8.6market CIN by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.8 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 74% to win, with the market at CIN by 7.5.
CIN has the advantage in passing: CIN passing ranks #5, BAL defends it at #17; the other way BAL #21 into CIN's #10.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, BAL defends it at #4; the other way BAL #30 into CIN's #5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BAL. BAL sack rate ranks #19, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into BAL's #6. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 11.8 points a game (CIN +7.2, BAL -4.6).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 8.6 against a market CIN by 7.5: 1.1 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 39.8 against a line of 40: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 8.6 · market CIN by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN passing ranks #5, BAL defends it at #17; the other way BAL #21 into CIN's #10.
Rushing game
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL rushing ranks #2, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #14 into BAL's #10.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, BAL defends it at #4; the other way BAL #30 into CIN's #5.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #1, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #30 into BAL's #2.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #19, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #8, BAL defends it at #8; the other way BAL #18 into CIN's #6.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +7.2 per game over the last five, BAL −4.6.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 7.5; the model says CIN by 8.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 7.5 · model CIN by 8.6
Mkt CIN 7.5
Model CIN 8.6
← BAL by 28tieCIN by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 39.8
Mkt 40
Model 39.8
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
