The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
87%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 15.0market BUF by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.5 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 87% to win, with the market at BUF by 14.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Skylar Thompson starting for Miami Dolphins, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUF third-down conversion ranks #1, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #24 into BUF's #5.
BUF has the advantage in passing: BUF passing ranks #3, MIA defends it at #19; the other way MIA #8 into BUF's #12.
Counterpoint: big plays favours MIA. MIA explosive rush rate ranks #13, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #16 into MIA's #13. The pick still lands on BUF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 15.0 against a market BUF by 14: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 49.5 against a line of 44: 5.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 15.0 · market BUF by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF passing ranks #3, MIA defends it at #19; the other way MIA #8 into BUF's #12.
Rushing game
=
Even
BUF rushing ranks #15, MIA defends it at #7; the other way MIA #16 into BUF's #5.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF third-down conversion ranks #1, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #24 into BUF's #5.
Big plays
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA explosive rush rate ranks #13, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #16 into MIA's #13.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
BUF sack rate ranks #9, MIA defends it at #17; the other way MIA #10 into BUF's #18.
Ball security
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #31, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into BUF's #5.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +4.6 per game over the last five, MIA −1.8.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 14; the model says BUF by 15.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 14 · model BUF by 15.0
Mkt BUF 14
Model BUF 15.0
← MIA by 28tieBUF by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 14 and 15.0, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 14. The market is on 14, a number 5.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 49.5
Mkt 44
Model 49.5
20 pts4672 pts
13.1% of NFL games finish between 44 and 49.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
