The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Jacksonville JaguarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 2.0market LAC by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.2 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 56% to win, with the market at LAC by 2.
JAX has the advantage in big plays: JAX explosive rush rate ranks #12, LAC defends it at #25; the other way LAC #29 into JAX's #12.
JAX has the advantage in rushing: JAX rushing ranks #19, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into JAX's #6.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours LAC. LAC turnovers / game ranks #4, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #29 into LAC's #9. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 2.0 against a market LAC by 2: 4.0 points of daylight in JAX's favour. The model's total is 45.2 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 2.0 · market LAC by 2
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAC, but the model still picks JAX. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC passing ranks #13, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #7 into LAC's #9.
Rushing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX rushing ranks #19, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #8, JAX defends it at #29; the other way JAX #10 into LAC's #10.
Big plays
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX explosive rush rate ranks #12, LAC defends it at #25; the other way LAC #29 into JAX's #12.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #28; the other way JAX #5 into LAC's #12.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #4, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #29 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
JAX +8.4 per game over the last five, LAC +7.4.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 2; the model says JAX by 2.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 2 · model JAX by 2.0
Mkt LAC 2
Model JAX 2.0
← LAC by 28tieJAX by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 45.2
Mkt 46.5
Model 45.2
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 45.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
