The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Jacksonville JaguarsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 5.9market JAX by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.1 pointsmarket 39.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% to win, with the market at JAX by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joshua Dobbs starting for Tennessee Titans, and the model prices that in.
JAX has the advantage in passing: JAX passing ranks #7, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into JAX's #24.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours TEN. TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into TEN's #13. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: TEN has 3 more days since its last game (JAX 6d, TEN 9d).
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 16.4 points a game (JAX +8.4, TEN -8.0).
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 5.9 against a market JAX by 6: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.1 against a line of 39.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 5.9 · market JAX by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX passing ranks #7, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into JAX's #24.
Rushing game
=
Even
JAX rushing ranks #19, TEN defends it at #1; the other way TEN #26 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into TEN's #13.
Big plays
=
Even
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #15, TEN defends it at #21; the other way TEN #21 into JAX's #15.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #5, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into JAX's #28.
Ball security
=
Even
TEN turnovers / game ranks #14, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #29 into TEN's #22.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +8.4 per game over the last five, TEN −8.0.
Market
JAX
Clear advantage
Consensus has JAX by 6; the model says JAX by 5.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 6 · model JAX by 5.9
Mkt JAX 6
Model JAX 5.9
← TEN by 28tieJAX by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39.5 · model 39.1
Mkt 39.5
Model 39.1
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
