The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Minnesota VikingsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 0.5market GB by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.7 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 51% to win, with the market at GB by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours GB. GB sack rate ranks #7, MIN defends it at #23; the other way MIN #14 into GB's #15. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: GB has the better last five games by 11.2 points a game (GB +9.4, MIN -1.8).
Home field is with GB, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 0.5 against a market GB by 3: 3.5 points of daylight in MIN's favour. The model's total is 54.7 against a line of 47.5: 7.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 0.5 · market GB by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor GB, but the model still picks MIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #19, MIN defends it at #27; the other way MIN #10 into GB's #13.
Rushing game
GB
Slight advantage
GB rushing ranks #9, MIN defends it at #18; the other way MIN #29 into GB's #30.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #8, GB defends it at #11; the other way GB #23 into MIN's #22.
Big plays
=
Even
GB explosive pass rate ranks #9, MIN defends it at #26; the other way MIN #24 into GB's #24.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Clear advantage
GB sack rate ranks #7, MIN defends it at #23; the other way MIN #14 into GB's #15.
Ball security
GB
Slight advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #13, MIN defends it at #13; the other way MIN #20 into GB's #7.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, MIN −1.8.
Market
GB
Slight advantage
Consensus has GB by 3; the model says MIN by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 3 · model MIN by 0.5
Mkt GB 3
Model MIN 0.5
← MIN by 28tieGB by 28 →
5.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 54.7
Mkt 47.5
Model 54.7
20 pts4672 pts
17.1% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 54.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
