The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Washington CommandersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 2.2market WSH by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
36.8 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 56% to win, with the market at WSH by 1.
WSH has the advantage in rushing: WSH rushing ranks #25, CLE defends it at #29; the other way CLE #6 into WSH's #3.
WSH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, CLE defends it at #19; the other way CLE #21 into WSH's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CLE. CLE turnovers / game ranks #12, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into CLE's #23. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with WSH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 2.2 against a market WSH by 1: 1.2 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 36.8 against a line of 41.5: 4.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 2.2 · market WSH by 1
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE passing ranks #16, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #25 into CLE's #11.
Rushing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH rushing ranks #25, CLE defends it at #29; the other way CLE #6 into WSH's #3.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, CLE defends it at #19; the other way CLE #21 into WSH's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
WSH explosive pass rate ranks #22, CLE defends it at #22; the other way CLE #19 into WSH's #16.
Pass protection & rush
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH sack rate ranks #26, CLE defends it at #21; the other way CLE #24 into WSH's #7.
Ball security
CLE
Clear advantage
CLE turnovers / game ranks #12, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into CLE's #23.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
WSH −3.8 per game over the last five, CLE −2.0.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has WSH by 1; the model says WSH by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 1 · model WSH by 2.2
Mkt WSH 1
Model WSH 2.2
← CLE by 28tieWSH by 28 →
2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 36.8
Mkt 41.5
Model 36.8
20 pts4672 pts
14.6% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 36.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
