The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Tampa Bay BuccaneersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TB by 2.1market TB by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.1 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 56% to win, with the market at TB by 7.5.
TB has the advantage in passing: TB passing ranks #14, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #28 into TB's #18.
Home field is with ARI, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TB by 2.1 against a market TB by 7.5: 5.4 points of daylight in ARI's favour. The model's total is 44.1 against a line of 41.5: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TB by 2.1 · market TB by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TB
Clear advantage
TB passing ranks #14, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #28 into TB's #18.
Rushing game
=
Even
ARI rushing ranks #23, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into ARI's #21.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TB third-down conversion ranks #19, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #26 into TB's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
ARI explosive pass rate ranks #31, TB defends it at #11; the other way TB #29 into ARI's #4.
Pass protection & rush
TB
Clear advantage
TB sack rate ranks #1, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #16 into TB's #11.
Ball security
TB
Slight advantage
TB turnovers / game ranks #11, ARI defends it at #20; the other way ARI #27 into TB's #24.
Form (last 5)
TB
Slight advantage
ARI −10.4 per game over the last five, TB −6.4.
Market
TB
Clear advantage
Consensus has TB by 7.5; the model says TB by 2.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TB by 7.5 · model TB by 2.1
Mkt TB 7.5
Model TB 2.1
← TB by 28tieARI by 28 →
18.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 44.1
Mkt 41.5
Model 44.1
20 pts4672 pts
9.1% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 44.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
