The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Los Angeles RamsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 4.1market DEN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
29.6 pointsmarket 36.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 62% to win, with the market at DEN by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Baker Mayfield starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
LAR has the advantage in rushing: LAR rushing ranks #18, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #28 into LAR's #12.
Counterpoint: passing favours DEN. DEN passing ranks #29, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into DEN's #6. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAR has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (LAR +0.4, DEN -6.8).
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 4.1 against a market DEN by 3: 7.1 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 29.6 against a line of 36.5: 6.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 4.1 · market DEN by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN passing ranks #29, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into DEN's #6.
Rushing game
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR rushing ranks #18, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #28 into LAR's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, DEN defends it at #8; the other way DEN #16 into LAR's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
DEN explosive pass rate ranks #14, LAR defends it at #10; the other way LAR #27 into DEN's #8.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #31, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #30 into LAR's #19.
Ball security
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN turnovers / game ranks #16, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #23 into DEN's #16.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR +0.4 per game over the last five, DEN −6.8.
Market
DEN
Slight advantage
Consensus has DEN by 3; the model says LAR by 4.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DEN by 3 · model LAR by 4.1
Mkt DEN 3
Model LAR 4.1
← DEN by 28tieLAR by 28 →
19.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 36.5 · model 29.6
Mkt 36.5
Model 29.6
20 pts4672 pts
14.8% of NFL games finish between 36.5 and 29.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
