The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Dallas CowboysSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 3.6market DAL by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.3 pointsmarket 48
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 61% to win, with the market at DAL by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Gardner Minshew starting for Philadelphia Eagles, and the model prices that in.
DAL has the advantage in rushing: DAL rushing ranks #10, PHI defends it at #23; the other way PHI #1 into DAL's #4.
Counterpoint: big plays favours PHI. PHI explosive pass rate ranks #2, DAL defends it at #5; the other way DAL #13 into PHI's #3. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: PHI has the better last five games by 7.6 points a game (DAL +2.0, PHI +9.6).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 3.6 against a market DAL by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 62.3 against a line of 48: 14.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 3.6 · market DAL by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor PHI, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI passing ranks #6, DAL defends it at #5; the other way DAL #9 into PHI's #1.
Rushing game
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, PHI defends it at #23; the other way PHI #1 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, PHI defends it at #16; the other way PHI #3 into DAL's #6.
Big plays
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI explosive pass rate ranks #2, DAL defends it at #5; the other way DAL #13 into PHI's #3.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #4, PHI defends it at #1; the other way PHI #17 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #5, DAL defends it at #1; the other way DAL #15 into PHI's #4.
Form (last 5)
PHI
Clear advantage
DAL +2.0 per game over the last five, PHI +9.6.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 4; the model says DAL by 3.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 4 · model DAL by 3.6
Mkt DAL 4
Model DAL 3.6
← PHI by 28tieDAL by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48 · model 62.3
Mkt 48
Model 62.3
20 pts4672 pts
27.2% of NFL games finish between 48 and 62.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
