The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
87%Kansas City ChiefsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 15.1market KC by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.3 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 87% to win, with the market at KC by 14.5.
KC has the advantage in passing: KC passing ranks #1, HOU defends it at #14; the other way HOU #32 into KC's #16.
KC has the advantage in rushing: KC rushing ranks #11, HOU defends it at #24; the other way HOU #32 into KC's #19.
Form: KC has the better last five games by 13.2 points a game (HOU -6.4, KC +6.8).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 15.1 against a market KC by 14.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.3 against a line of 48.5: 1.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 15.1 · market KC by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC passing ranks #1, HOU defends it at #14; the other way HOU #32 into KC's #16.
Rushing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC rushing ranks #11, HOU defends it at #24; the other way HOU #32 into KC's #19.
Third down & red zone
KC
Clear advantage
KC third-down conversion ranks #2, HOU defends it at #18; the other way HOU #31 into KC's #22.
Big plays
KC
Clear advantage
KC explosive rush rate ranks #27, HOU defends it at #31; the other way HOU #32 into KC's #9.
Pass protection & rush
KC
Clear advantage
KC sack rate ranks #2, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #13 into KC's #5.
Ball security
KC
Clear advantage
KC turnovers / game ranks #3, HOU defends it at #11; the other way HOU #30 into KC's #19.
Form (last 5)
KC
Clear advantage
HOU −6.4 per game over the last five, KC +6.8.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 14.5; the model says KC by 15.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 14.5 · model KC by 15.1
Mkt KC 14.5
Model KC 15.1
← KC by 28tieHOU by 28 →
0.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 50.3
Mkt 48.5
Model 50.3
20 pts4672 pts
4.9% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 50.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
