The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%San Francisco 49ersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 4.0market SF by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
32.4 pointsmarket 38
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 62% to win, with the market at SF by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Brock Purdy starting for San Francisco 49ers, and the model prices that in.
SF has the advantage in big plays: SF explosive pass rate ranks #1, TB defends it at #11; the other way TB #29 into SF's #7.
SF has the advantage in rushing: SF rushing ranks #12, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into SF's #2.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours TB. TB sack rate ranks #1, SF defends it at #16; the other way SF #11 into TB's #11. The pick still lands on SF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SF has the better last five games by 12.2 points a game (SF +5.8, TB -6.4).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 4.0 against a market SF by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 32.4 against a line of 38: 5.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 4.0 · market SF by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF passing ranks #2, TB defends it at #18; the other way TB #14 into SF's #3.
Rushing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF rushing ranks #12, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into SF's #2.
Third down & red zone
SF
Slight advantage
SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #20, TB defends it at #30; the other way TB #25 into SF's #20.
Big plays
SF
Clear advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #1, TB defends it at #11; the other way TB #29 into SF's #7.
Pass protection & rush
TB
Clear advantage
TB sack rate ranks #1, SF defends it at #16; the other way SF #11 into TB's #11.
Ball security
SF
Clear advantage
SF turnovers / game ranks #7, TB defends it at #24; the other way TB #11 into SF's #2.
Form (last 5)
SF
Clear advantage
SF +5.8 per game over the last five, TB −6.4.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 3.5; the model says SF by 4.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 3.5 · model SF by 4.0
Mkt SF 3.5
Model SF 4.0
← TB by 28tieSF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38 · model 32.4
Mkt 38
Model 32.4
20 pts4672 pts
13.2% of NFL games finish between 38 and 32.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
