The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
81%Tennessee TitansStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 11.9market TEN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.1 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 81% to win, with the market at TEN by 3.
TEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into TEN's #13.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours JAX. JAX sack rate ranks #5, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into JAX's #28. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 16.4 points a game (TEN -8.0, JAX +8.4).
Home field is with TEN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 11.9 against a market TEN by 3: 8.9 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 39.1 against a line of 42: 2.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 11.9 · market TEN by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks TEN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX passing ranks #7, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into JAX's #24.
Rushing game
=
Even
JAX rushing ranks #19, TEN defends it at #1; the other way TEN #26 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into TEN's #13.
Big plays
=
Even
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #15, TEN defends it at #21; the other way TEN #21 into JAX's #15.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #5, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into JAX's #28.
Ball security
=
Even
TEN turnovers / game ranks #14, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #29 into TEN's #22.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
TEN −8.0 per game over the last five, JAX +8.4.
Market
TEN
Slight advantage
Consensus has TEN by 3; the model says TEN by 11.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TEN by 3 · model TEN by 11.9
Mkt TEN 3
Model TEN 11.9
← JAX by 28tieTEN by 28 →
20.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 39.1
Mkt 42
Model 39.1
20 pts4672 pts
6.9% of NFL games finish between 42 and 39.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
