The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Minnesota VikingsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 3.4market DET by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.3 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 60% to win, with the market at DET by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Kirk Cousins starting for Minnesota Vikings, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIN third-down conversion ranks #13, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into MIN's #12.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DET. DET sack rate ranks #3, MIN defends it at #23; the other way MIN #14 into DET's #20. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DET has the better last five games by 8.8 points a game (DET +7.0, MIN -1.8).
Home field is with DET, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 3.4 against a market DET by 2.5: 5.9 points of daylight in MIN's favour. The model's total is 57.3 against a line of 51.5: 5.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 3.4 · market DET by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DET, but the model still picks MIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
DET passing ranks #4, MIN defends it at #27; the other way MIN #10 into DET's #29.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIN rushing ranks #29, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into MIN's #18.
Third down & red zone
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN third-down conversion ranks #13, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into MIN's #12.
Big plays
=
Even
DET explosive pass rate ranks #8, MIN defends it at #26; the other way MIN #24 into DET's #32.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Slight advantage
DET sack rate ranks #3, MIN defends it at #23; the other way MIN #14 into DET's #20.
Ball security
DET
Slight advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #2, MIN defends it at #13; the other way MIN #20 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
DET +7.0 per game over the last five, MIN −1.8.
Market
DET
Slight advantage
Consensus has DET by 2.5; the model says MIN by 3.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 2.5 · model MIN by 3.4
Mkt DET 2.5
Model MIN 3.4
← MIN by 28tieDET by 28 →
16.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 57.3
Mkt 51.5
Model 57.3
20 pts4672 pts
11.2% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 57.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
