The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Las Vegas RaidersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LV by 1.0market LV by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.0 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Las Vegas Raiders at 53% to win, with the market at LV by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Baker Mayfield starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
LV has the advantage in passing: LV passing ranks #15, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into LV's #31.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours LAR. LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, LV defends it at #32; the other way LV #26 into LAR's #1. The pick still lands on LV because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LV by 1.0 against a market LV by 6.5: 5.5 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 45.0 against a line of 42.5: 2.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LV by 1.0 · market LV by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAR, but the model still picks LV. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LV
Slight advantage
LV passing ranks #15, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into LV's #31.
Rushing game
=
Even
LV rushing ranks #13, LAR defends it at #12; the other way LAR #18 into LV's #16.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, LV defends it at #32; the other way LV #26 into LAR's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
LV explosive rush rate ranks #7, LAR defends it at #3; the other way LAR #24 into LV's #14.
Pass protection & rush
LV
Slight advantage
LV sack rate ranks #8, LAR defends it at #19; the other way LAR #31 into LV's #30.
Ball security
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #23, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #17 into LAR's #18.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR +0.4 per game over the last five, LV −3.8.
Market
LV
Clear advantage
Consensus has LV by 6.5; the model says LV by 1.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LV by 6.5 · model LV by 1.0
Mkt LV 6.5
Model LV 1.0
← LV by 28tieLAR by 28 →
16.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 45.0
Mkt 42.5
Model 45.0
20 pts4672 pts
7.4% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 45.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
