The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Dallas CowboysStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 12.7market DAL by 11
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.8 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 83% to win, with the market at DAL by 11.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matt Ryan starting for Indianapolis Colts, and the model prices that in.
DAL has the advantage in passing: DAL passing ranks #9, IND defends it at #15; the other way IND #31 into DAL's #5.
DAL has the advantage in rushing: DAL rushing ranks #10, IND defends it at #9; the other way IND #30 into DAL's #4.
Rest: DAL has 4 more days since its last game (DAL 10d, IND 6d).
Form: DAL has the better last five games by 18.8 points a game (DAL +2.0, IND -16.8).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 12.7 against a market DAL by 11: 1.7 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 41.8 against a line of 44.5: 2.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 12.7 · market DAL by 11
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #9, IND defends it at #15; the other way IND #31 into DAL's #5.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, IND defends it at #9; the other way IND #30 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, IND defends it at #31; the other way IND #29 into DAL's #6.
Big plays
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, IND defends it at #17; the other way IND #30 into DAL's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #4, IND defends it at #8; the other way IND #28 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #15, IND defends it at #21; the other way IND #32 into DAL's #1.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL +2.0 per game over the last five, IND −16.8.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 11; the model says DAL by 12.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 11 · model DAL by 12.7
Mkt DAL 11
Model DAL 12.7
← IND by 28tieDAL by 28 →
1.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 11, a number 2.2% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 41.8
Mkt 44.5
Model 41.8
20 pts4672 pts
9.1% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 41.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
