The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 2.3market SEA by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.6 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 57% to win, with the market at SEA by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with John Wolford starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #12, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into SEA's #23.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours LAR. LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, SEA defends it at #23; the other way SEA #27 into LAR's #1. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 2.3 against a market SEA by 7: 4.7 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 47.6 against a line of 41: 6.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 2.3 · market SEA by 7
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAR, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #12, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into SEA's #23.
Rushing game
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR rushing ranks #18, SEA defends it at #26; the other way SEA #21 into LAR's #12.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, SEA defends it at #23; the other way SEA #27 into LAR's #1.
Big plays
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #24, SEA defends it at #24; the other way SEA #11 into LAR's #3.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #23, LAR defends it at #19; the other way LAR #31 into SEA's #10.
Ball security
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #21, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #23 into SEA's #14.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR +0.4 per game over the last five, SEA −4.0.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 7; the model says SEA by 2.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 7 · model SEA by 2.3
Mkt SEA 7
Model SEA 2.3
← SEA by 28tieLAR by 28 →
14.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 47.6
Mkt 41
Model 47.6
20 pts4672 pts
17.2% of NFL games finish between 41 and 47.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
