The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Washington CommandersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 0.5market WSH by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.2 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 51% to win, with the market at WSH by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Taylor Heinicke starting for Washington Commanders, and the model prices that in.
WSH has the advantage in rushing: WSH rushing ranks #25, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #5 into WSH's #3.
WSH has the advantage in big plays: WSH explosive pass rate ranks #22, NYG defends it at #13; the other way NYG #32 into WSH's #16.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NYG. NYG turnovers / game ranks #1, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into NYG's #30. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NYG has 3 more days since its last game (NYG 10d, WSH 7d).
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 0.5 against a market WSH by 2.5: 2.0 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 35.2 against a line of 40: 4.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 0.5 · market WSH by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
NYG passing ranks #11, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #25 into NYG's #20.
Rushing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH rushing ranks #25, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #5 into WSH's #3.
Third down & red zone
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, WSH defends it at #9; the other way WSH #24 into NYG's #10.
Big plays
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH explosive pass rate ranks #22, NYG defends it at #13; the other way NYG #32 into WSH's #16.
Pass protection & rush
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH sack rate ranks #26, NYG defends it at #22; the other way NYG #27 into WSH's #7.
Ball security
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #1, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into NYG's #30.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG −1.0 per game over the last five, WSH −3.8.
Market
WSH
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSH by 2.5; the model says WSH by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 2.5 · model WSH by 0.5
Mkt WSH 2.5
Model WSH 0.5
← WSH by 28tieNYG by 28 →
4.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 35.2
Mkt 40
Model 35.2
20 pts4672 pts
10.4% of NFL games finish between 40 and 35.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
