The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%San Francisco 49ersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 5.7market SF by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.2 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 66% to win, with the market at SF by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Colt McCoy starting for Arizona Cardinals, and the model prices that in.
SF has the advantage in passing: SF passing ranks #2, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #28 into SF's #3.
SF has the advantage in rushing: SF rushing ranks #12, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #23 into SF's #2.
Form: SF has the better last five games by 16.2 points a game (ARI -10.4, SF +5.8).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 5.7 against a market SF by 10: 4.3 points of daylight in ARI's favour. The model's total is 44.2 against a line of 43.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 5.7 · market SF by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF passing ranks #2, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #28 into SF's #3.
Rushing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF rushing ranks #12, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #23 into SF's #2.
Third down & red zone
SF
Clear advantage
SF third-down conversion ranks #6, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #26 into SF's #14.
Big plays
SF
Clear advantage
SF explosive rush rate ranks #8, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #28 into SF's #1.
Pass protection & rush
SF
Slight advantage
SF sack rate ranks #11, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #16 into SF's #16.
Ball security
SF
Clear advantage
SF turnovers / game ranks #7, ARI defends it at #20; the other way ARI #27 into SF's #2.
Form (last 5)
SF
Clear advantage
ARI −10.4 per game over the last five, SF +5.8.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 10; the model says SF by 5.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 10 · model SF by 5.7
Mkt SF 10
Model SF 5.7
← SF by 28tieARI by 28 →
9.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 44.2
Mkt 43.5
Model 44.2
20 pts4672 pts
3.9% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 44.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
