The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Washington CommandersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 3.2market WSH by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.2 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 59% to win, with the market at WSH by 3.
WSH has the advantage in rushing: WSH rushing ranks #25, HOU defends it at #24; the other way HOU #32 into WSH's #3.
WSH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, HOU defends it at #18; the other way HOU #31 into WSH's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours HOU. HOU turnovers / game ranks #30, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into HOU's #11. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 3.2 against a market WSH by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 38.2 against a line of 41: 2.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 3.2 · market WSH by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH passing ranks #25, HOU defends it at #14; the other way HOU #32 into WSH's #8.
Rushing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH rushing ranks #25, HOU defends it at #24; the other way HOU #32 into WSH's #3.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, HOU defends it at #18; the other way HOU #31 into WSH's #1.
Big plays
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH explosive rush rate ranks #26, HOU defends it at #31; the other way HOU #32 into WSH's #6.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #13, WSH defends it at #7; the other way WSH #26 into HOU's #13.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #30, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into HOU's #11.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Slight advantage
HOU −6.4 per game over the last five, WSH −3.8.
Market
WSH
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSH by 3; the model says WSH by 3.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 3 · model WSH by 3.2
Mkt WSH 3
Model WSH 3.2
← WSH by 28tieHOU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 38.2
Mkt 41
Model 38.2
20 pts4672 pts
5.9% of NFL games finish between 41 and 38.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
