The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Baltimore RavensStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 11.2market BAL by 13
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.4 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 80% to win, with the market at BAL by 13.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Phillip Walker starting for Carolina Panthers, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BAL third-down conversion ranks #11, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #30 into BAL's #4.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #2, CAR defends it at #15; the other way CAR #7 into BAL's #10.
Rest: BAL has 3 more days since its last game (BAL 13d, CAR 10d).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 11.2 against a market BAL by 13: 1.8 points of daylight in CAR's favour. The model's total is 48.4 against a line of 42: 6.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 11.2 · market BAL by 13
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL passing ranks #21, CAR defends it at #22; the other way CAR #24 into BAL's #17.
Rushing game
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL rushing ranks #2, CAR defends it at #15; the other way CAR #7 into BAL's #10.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL third-down conversion ranks #11, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #30 into BAL's #4.
Big plays
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #1, CAR defends it at #20; the other way CAR #25 into BAL's #2.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #19, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #22 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL turnovers / game ranks #18, CAR defends it at #27; the other way CAR #9 into BAL's #8.
Form (last 5)
CAR
Clear advantage
BAL −4.6 per game over the last five, CAR +1.8.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 13; the model says BAL by 11.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 13 · model BAL by 11.2
Mkt BAL 13
Model BAL 11.2
← CAR by 28tieBAL by 28 →
1.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 13, a number 2.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 48.4
Mkt 42
Model 48.4
20 pts4672 pts
18.3% of NFL games finish between 42 and 48.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
