The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
71%Dallas CowboysStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 7.7market DAL by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.5 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 71% to win, with the market at DAL by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
DAL has the advantage in rushing: DAL rushing ranks #10, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into DAL's #4.
DAL has the advantage in passing: DAL passing ranks #9, GB defends it at #13; the other way GB #19 into DAL's #5.
Rest: DAL has 7 more days since its last game (GB 7d, DAL 14d).
Form: GB has the better last five games by 7.4 points a game (GB +9.4, DAL +2.0).
Home field is with GB, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 7.7 against a market DAL by 3.5: 4.2 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 40.5 against a line of 44.5: 4.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 7.7 · market DAL by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #9, GB defends it at #13; the other way GB #19 into DAL's #5.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, GB defends it at #11; the other way GB #23 into DAL's #6.
Big plays
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, GB defends it at #24; the other way GB #9 into DAL's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #4, GB defends it at #15; the other way GB #7 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
=
Even
DAL turnovers / game ranks #15, GB defends it at #7; the other way GB #13 into DAL's #1.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, DAL +2.0.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 3.5; the model says DAL by 7.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 3.5 · model DAL by 7.7
Mkt DAL 3.5
Model DAL 7.7
← DAL by 28tieGB by 28 →
11.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 40.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 40.5
20 pts4672 pts
12.5% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 40.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
