The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Tennessee TitansStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 10.1market TEN by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
27.6 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 77% to win, with the market at TEN by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Russell Wilson starting for Denver Broncos, and the model prices that in.
TEN has the advantage in rushing: TEN rushing ranks #26, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #28 into TEN's #1.
TEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TEN third-down conversion ranks #23, DEN defends it at #2; the other way DEN #32 into TEN's #3.
Counterpoint: passing favours DEN. DEN passing ranks #29, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into DEN's #6. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DEN has 7 more days since its last game (TEN 7d, DEN 14d).
Home field is with TEN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 10.1 against a market TEN by 2.5: 7.6 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 27.6 against a line of 40: 12.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 10.1 · market TEN by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN passing ranks #29, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into DEN's #6.
Rushing game
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN rushing ranks #26, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #28 into TEN's #1.
Third down & red zone
TEN
Slight advantage
TEN third-down conversion ranks #23, DEN defends it at #2; the other way DEN #32 into TEN's #3.
Big plays
=
Even
DEN explosive pass rate ranks #14, TEN defends it at #21; the other way TEN #21 into DEN's #8.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
TEN sack rate ranks #29, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #30 into TEN's #27.
Ball security
=
Even
DEN turnovers / game ranks #16, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #14 into DEN's #16.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
TEN −8.0 per game over the last five, DEN −6.8.
Market
TEN
Slight advantage
Consensus has TEN by 2.5; the model says TEN by 10.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TEN by 2.5 · model TEN by 10.1
Mkt TEN 2.5
Model TEN 10.1
← DEN by 28tieTEN by 28 →
26.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 27.6
Mkt 40
Model 27.6
20 pts4672 pts
24.7% of NFL games finish between 40 and 27.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
