The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Miami DolphinsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 4.1market MIA by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.8 pointsmarket 49
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Dolphins at 62% to win, with the market at MIA by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jacoby Brissett starting for Cleveland Browns, and the model prices that in.
MIA has the advantage in big plays: MIA explosive pass rate ranks #6, CLE defends it at #22; the other way CLE #19 into MIA's #12.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #16, CLE defends it at #29; the other way CLE #6 into MIA's #7.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CLE. CLE turnovers / game ranks #12, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into CLE's #23. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: CLE has 6 more days since its last game (MIA 7d, CLE 13d).
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 4.1 against a market MIA by 3: 1.1 points of daylight in MIA's favour. The model's total is 47.8 against a line of 49: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 4.1 · market MIA by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
MIA passing ranks #8, CLE defends it at #11; the other way CLE #16 into MIA's #19.
Rushing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA rushing ranks #16, CLE defends it at #29; the other way CLE #6 into MIA's #7.
Third down & red zone
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE third-down conversion ranks #21, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #24 into CLE's #19.
Big plays
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA explosive pass rate ranks #6, CLE defends it at #22; the other way CLE #19 into MIA's #12.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #10, CLE defends it at #21; the other way CLE #24 into MIA's #17.
Ball security
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE turnovers / game ranks #12, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into CLE's #23.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
MIA −1.8 per game over the last five, CLE −2.0.
Market
MIA
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIA by 3; the model says MIA by 4.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 3 · model MIA by 4.1
Mkt MIA 3
Model MIA 4.1
← CLE by 28tieMIA by 28 →
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49 · model 47.8
Mkt 49
Model 47.8
20 pts4672 pts
2.7% of NFL games finish between 49 and 47.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
