The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 1.3market TB by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.6 pointsmarket 45
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 54% to win, with the market at TB by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Tom Brady starting for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive rush rate ranks #11, TB defends it at #21; the other way TB #31 into SEA's #24.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours TB. TB sack rate ranks #1, SEA defends it at #10; the other way SEA #23 into TB's #11. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 1.3 against a market TB by 2.5: 3.8 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 44.6 against a line of 45: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 1.3 · market TB by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor TB, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
TB passing ranks #14, SEA defends it at #23; the other way SEA #12 into TB's #18.
Rushing game
=
Even
TB rushing ranks #31, SEA defends it at #26; the other way SEA #21 into TB's #14.
Third down & red zone
TB
Slight advantage
TB third-down conversion ranks #19, SEA defends it at #28; the other way SEA #22 into TB's #6.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #11, TB defends it at #21; the other way TB #31 into SEA's #24.
Pass protection & rush
TB
Clear advantage
TB sack rate ranks #1, SEA defends it at #10; the other way SEA #23 into TB's #11.
Ball security
=
Even
TB turnovers / game ranks #11, SEA defends it at #14; the other way SEA #21 into TB's #24.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
TB −6.4 per game over the last five, SEA −4.0.
Market
TB
Slight advantage
Consensus has TB by 2.5; the model says SEA by 1.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TB by 2.5 · model SEA by 1.3
Mkt TB 2.5
Model SEA 1.3
← SEA by 28tieTB by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45 · model 44.6
Mkt 45
Model 44.6
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
