The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 3.0market GB by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.4 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 59% to win, with the market at GB by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
GB has the advantage in rushing: GB rushing ranks #9, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into GB's #30.
GB has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GB third-down conversion ranks #16, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into GB's #9.
Home field is with DET, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 3.0 against a market GB by 4: 1.0 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 52.4 against a line of 49.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 3.0 · market GB by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #19, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #4 into GB's #13.
Rushing game
GB
Slight advantage
GB rushing ranks #9, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into GB's #30.
Third down & red zone
GB
Slight advantage
GB third-down conversion ranks #16, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into GB's #9.
Big plays
=
Even
GB explosive pass rate ranks #9, DET defends it at #32; the other way DET #8 into GB's #24.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
GB sack rate ranks #7, DET defends it at #20; the other way DET #3 into GB's #15.
Ball security
=
Even
DET turnovers / game ranks #2, GB defends it at #7; the other way GB #13 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
DET +7.0 per game over the last five, GB +9.4.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 4; the model says GB by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 4 · model GB by 3.0
Mkt GB 4
Model GB 3.0
← GB by 28tieDET by 28 →
6.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 52.4
Mkt 49.5
Model 52.4
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 52.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
