The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Atlanta FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ATL by 3.3market LAC by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.8 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Atlanta Falcons at 60% to win, with the market at LAC by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Herbert starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
ATL has the advantage in rushing: ATL rushing ranks #3, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into ATL's #25.
ATL has the advantage in big plays: ATL explosive rush rate ranks #9, LAC defends it at #25; the other way LAC #29 into ATL's #18.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LAC. LAC sack rate ranks #6, ATL defends it at #32; the other way ATL #25 into LAC's #12. The pick still lands on ATL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LAC has 7 more days since its last game (ATL 7d, LAC 14d).
Form: LAC has the better last five games by 7.4 points a game (ATL +0.0, LAC +7.4).
Home field is with ATL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ATL by 3.3 against a market LAC by 2.5: 5.8 points of daylight in ATL's favour. The model's total is 58.8 against a line of 49.5: 9.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ATL by 3.3 · market LAC by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAC, but the model still picks ATL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC passing ranks #13, ATL defends it at #30; the other way ATL #20 into LAC's #9.
Rushing game
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL rushing ranks #3, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into ATL's #25.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #8, ATL defends it at #31; the other way ATL #9 into LAC's #10.
Big plays
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL explosive rush rate ranks #9, LAC defends it at #25; the other way LAC #29 into ATL's #18.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #6, ATL defends it at #32; the other way ATL #25 into LAC's #12.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #4, ATL defends it at #25; the other way ATL #10 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Clear advantage
ATL 0.0 per game over the last five, LAC +7.4.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 2.5; the model says ATL by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 2.5 · model ATL by 3.3
Mkt LAC 2.5
Model ATL 3.3
← LAC by 28tieATL by 28 →
17.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 58.8
Mkt 49.5
Model 58.8
20 pts4672 pts
19.8% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 58.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
