The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 13.9market BUF by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.4 pointsmarket 47
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 85% to win, with the market at BUF by 10.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #9, GB defends it at #11; the other way GB #23 into BUF's #2.
BUF has the advantage in rushing: BUF rushing ranks #15, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into BUF's #5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours GB. GB turnovers / game ranks #13, BUF defends it at #5; the other way BUF #31 into GB's #7. The pick still lands on BUF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: BUF has 7 more days since its last game (BUF 14d, GB 7d).
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 13.9 against a market BUF by 10.5: 3.4 points of daylight in BUF's favour. The model's total is 42.4 against a line of 47: 4.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 13.9 · market BUF by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #3, GB defends it at #13; the other way GB #19 into BUF's #12.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #15, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into BUF's #5.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #9, GB defends it at #11; the other way GB #23 into BUF's #2.
Big plays
=
Even
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #10, GB defends it at #24; the other way GB #9 into BUF's #14.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
GB sack rate ranks #7, BUF defends it at #18; the other way BUF #9 into GB's #15.
Ball security
GB
Clear advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #13, BUF defends it at #5; the other way BUF #31 into GB's #7.
Form (last 5)
GB
Slight advantage
BUF +4.6 per game over the last five, GB +9.4.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 10.5; the model says BUF by 13.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 10.5 · model BUF by 13.9
Mkt BUF 10.5
Model BUF 13.9
← GB by 28tieBUF by 28 →
3.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 42.4
Mkt 47
Model 42.4
20 pts4672 pts
12.2% of NFL games finish between 47 and 42.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
