The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Tennessee TitansSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 3.7market TEN by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.2 pointsmarket 39
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 61% to win, with the market at TEN by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Malik Willis starting for Tennessee Titans, and the model prices that in.
TEN has the advantage in rushing: TEN rushing ranks #26, HOU defends it at #24; the other way HOU #32 into TEN's #1.
TEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, HOU defends it at #19; the other way HOU #28 into TEN's #13.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours HOU. HOU sack rate ranks #13, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into HOU's #13. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 3.7 against a market TEN by 1: 2.7 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 40.2 against a line of 39: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 3.7 · market TEN by 1
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
HOU passing ranks #32, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into HOU's #14.
Rushing game
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN rushing ranks #26, HOU defends it at #24; the other way HOU #32 into TEN's #1.
Third down & red zone
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, HOU defends it at #19; the other way HOU #28 into TEN's #13.
Big plays
TEN
Slight advantage
TEN explosive rush rate ranks #18, HOU defends it at #31; the other way HOU #32 into TEN's #4.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #13, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into HOU's #13.
Ball security
=
Even
TEN turnovers / game ranks #14, HOU defends it at #11; the other way HOU #30 into TEN's #22.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
HOU −6.4 per game over the last five, TEN −8.0.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has TEN by 1; the model says TEN by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TEN by 1 · model TEN by 3.7
Mkt TEN 1
Model TEN 3.7
← TEN by 28tieHOU by 28 →
9.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39 · model 40.2
Mkt 39
Model 40.2
20 pts4672 pts
3.5% of NFL games finish between 39 and 40.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
