The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%New York JetsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 0.6market NE by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.3 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 52% to win, with the market at NE by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Zach Wilson starting for New York Jets, and the model prices that in.
NYJ has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NYJ red-zone touchdown rate ranks #31, NE defends it at #21; the other way NE #32 into NYJ's #3.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NE. NE turnovers / game ranks #24, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #25 into NE's #3. The pick still lands on NYJ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NE has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (NYJ -9.8, NE -1.2).
Home field is with NYJ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 0.6 against a market NE by 3: 3.6 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 45.3 against a line of 40: 5.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 0.6 · market NE by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor NE, but the model still picks NYJ. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NE
Slight advantage
NE passing ranks #23, NYJ defends it at #7; the other way NYJ #27 into NE's #2.
Rushing game
NE
Slight advantage
NE rushing ranks #22, NYJ defends it at #17; the other way NYJ #24 into NE's #8.
Third down & red zone
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ red-zone touchdown rate ranks #31, NE defends it at #21; the other way NE #32 into NYJ's #3.
Big plays
NE
Slight advantage
NE explosive rush rate ranks #6, NYJ defends it at #17; the other way NYJ #14 into NE's #5.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NE sack rate ranks #21, NYJ defends it at #9; the other way NYJ #15 into NE's #2.
Ball security
NE
Clear advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #24, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #25 into NE's #3.
Form (last 5)
NE
Clear advantage
NYJ −9.8 per game over the last five, NE −1.2.
Market
NE
Slight advantage
Consensus has NE by 3; the model says NYJ by 0.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 3 · model NYJ by 0.6
Mkt NE 3
Model NYJ 0.6
← NE by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 45.3
Mkt 40
Model 45.3
20 pts4672 pts
14.9% of NFL games finish between 40 and 45.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
