The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Denver BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEN by 0.5market JAX by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
31.7 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Denver Broncos at 52% to win, with the market at JAX by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Russell Wilson starting for Denver Broncos, and the model prices that in.
DEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #16, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into DEN's #8.
Counterpoint: rushing favours JAX. JAX rushing ranks #19, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #28 into JAX's #6. The pick still lands on DEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 15.2 points a game (JAX +8.4, DEN -6.8).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it DEN by 0.5 against a market JAX by 1: 1.5 points of daylight in DEN's favour. The model's total is 31.7 against a line of 41: 9.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEN by 0.5 · market JAX by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks DEN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
JAX passing ranks #7, DEN defends it at #6; the other way DEN #29 into JAX's #24.
Rushing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX rushing ranks #19, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #28 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #16, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into DEN's #8.
Big plays
=
Even
JAX explosive rush rate ranks #12, DEN defends it at #15; the other way DEN #20 into JAX's #12.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #5, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #30 into JAX's #28.
Ball security
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN turnovers / game ranks #16, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #29 into DEN's #16.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +8.4 per game over the last five, DEN −6.8.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has JAX by 1; the model says DEN by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 1 · model DEN by 0.5
Mkt JAX 1
Model DEN 0.5
← DEN by 28tieJAX by 28 →
0.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 31.7
Mkt 41
Model 31.7
20 pts4672 pts
22.5% of NFL games finish between 41 and 31.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
