The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 0.9market GB by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.3 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 53% to win, with the market at GB by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours WSH. WSH rushing ranks #25, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into WSH's #3. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WSH has 3 more days since its last game (WSH 10d, GB 7d).
Form: GB has the better last five games by 13.2 points a game (WSH -3.8, GB +9.4).
Home field is with WSH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 0.9 against a market GB by 4: 3.1 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 37.3 against a line of 41.5: 4.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 0.9 · market GB by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #19, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #25 into GB's #13.
Rushing game
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH rushing ranks #25, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into WSH's #3.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB third-down conversion ranks #16, WSH defends it at #1; the other way WSH #27 into GB's #9.
Big plays
=
Even
WSH explosive rush rate ranks #26, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #15 into WSH's #6.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Slight advantage
GB sack rate ranks #7, WSH defends it at #7; the other way WSH #26 into GB's #15.
Ball security
GB
Clear advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #13, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into GB's #7.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
WSH −3.8 per game over the last five, GB +9.4.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 4; the model says GB by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 4 · model GB by 0.9
Mkt GB 4
Model GB 0.9
← GB by 28tieWSH by 28 →
11.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 37.3
Mkt 41.5
Model 37.3
20 pts4672 pts
11.2% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 37.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
