The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%New York GiantsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYG by 1.1market JAX by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.1 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Giants at 53% to win, with the market at JAX by 3.
NYG has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NYG red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into NYG's #10.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours JAX. JAX sack rate ranks #5, NYG defends it at #22; the other way NYG #27 into JAX's #28. The pick still lands on NYG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 9.4 points a game (JAX +8.4, NYG -1.0).
Home field is with JAX, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NYG by 1.1 against a market JAX by 3: 4.1 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 38.1 against a line of 44: 5.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYG by 1.1 · market JAX by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks NYG. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
JAX passing ranks #7, NYG defends it at #20; the other way NYG #11 into JAX's #24.
Rushing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX rushing ranks #19, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #5 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, JAX defends it at #25; the other way JAX #13 into NYG's #10.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #15, NYG defends it at #13; the other way NYG #32 into JAX's #15.
Pass protection & rush
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX sack rate ranks #5, NYG defends it at #22; the other way NYG #27 into JAX's #28.
Ball security
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #1, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #29 into NYG's #30.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +8.4 per game over the last five, NYG −1.0.
Market
JAX
Slight advantage
Consensus has JAX by 3; the model says NYG by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 3 · model NYG by 1.1
Mkt JAX 3
Model NYG 1.1
← NYG by 28tieJAX by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 38.1
Mkt 44
Model 38.1
20 pts4672 pts
14.5% of NFL games finish between 44 and 38.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
