The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Dallas CowboysStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 13.0market DAL by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.1 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 83% to win, with the market at DAL by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jared Goff starting for Detroit Lions, and the model prices that in.
DAL has the advantage in rushing: DAL rushing ranks #10, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into DAL's #4.
DAL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DAL third-down conversion ranks #5, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into DAL's #15.
Rest: DET has 7 more days since its last game (DAL 7d, DET 14d).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 13.0 against a market DAL by 7: 6.0 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 52.1 against a line of 49.5: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 13.0 · market DAL by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #9, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #4 into DAL's #5.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL third-down conversion ranks #5, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into DAL's #15.
Big plays
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, DET defends it at #32; the other way DET #8 into DAL's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #4, DET defends it at #20; the other way DET #3 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
=
Even
DAL turnovers / game ranks #15, DET defends it at #17; the other way DET #2 into DAL's #1.
Form (last 5)
DET
Slight advantage
DAL +2.0 per game over the last five, DET +7.0.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 7; the model says DAL by 13.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 7 · model DAL by 13.0
Mkt DAL 7
Model DAL 13.0
← DET by 28tieDAL by 28 →
9.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 52.1
Mkt 49.5
Model 52.1
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 52.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
