The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Arizona CardinalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ARI by 1.6market ARI by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.8 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Arizona Cardinals at 55% to win, with the market at ARI by 2.5.
Counterpoint: passing favours NO. NO passing ranks #17, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #28 into NO's #4. The pick still lands on ARI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NO has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (ARI -10.4, NO +3.2).
Home field is with ARI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ARI by 1.6 against a market ARI by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.8 against a line of 44: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ARI by 1.6 · market ARI by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor NO, but the model still picks ARI. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NO
Clear advantage
NO passing ranks #17, ARI defends it at #21; the other way ARI #28 into NO's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
ARI rushing ranks #23, NO defends it at #20; the other way NO #27 into ARI's #21.
Third down & red zone
NO
Slight advantage
NO third-down conversion ranks #15, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #26 into NO's #24.
Big plays
NO
Clear advantage
NO explosive rush rate ranks #22, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #28 into NO's #7.
Pass protection & rush
NO
Clear advantage
NO sack rate ranks #20, ARI defends it at #24; the other way ARI #16 into NO's #4.
Ball security
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI turnovers / game ranks #27, NO defends it at #32; the other way NO #28 into ARI's #20.
Form (last 5)
NO
Clear advantage
ARI −10.4 per game over the last five, NO +3.2.
Market
ARI
Slight advantage
Consensus has ARI by 2.5; the model says ARI by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ARI by 2.5 · model ARI by 1.6
Mkt ARI 2.5
Model ARI 1.6
← NO by 28tieARI by 28 →
2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 42.8
Mkt 44
Model 42.8
20 pts4672 pts
3.5% of NFL games finish between 44 and 42.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
